Odds | History | Rules
How the Computer Rankings are Calculated
First, the computer evaluates each individual team member for the event in which they have chosen to compete. Five factors are built into the formula:
Team Wins: The number of times this individual player has been on a winning WBC team. Regardless of his own individual contribution to the team, he at least knows how to pick good team mates.
Total Laurels: The total laurels this player has earned in any event since the beginning of laurels record-keeping in 1999. This gives recognition to experienced WBC veterans who have a long track record of winning or placing at the WBC.
Laurels Last Year: Total laurels earned in the previous WBC year plus laurels earned so far this year in events leading up to the coming WBC. This recognizes both new players and experienced players who have performed well recently.
Event Laurels: The total laurels this player has earned in his particular chosen event since 1999. Players with a long track record of earning points in this event are likely to continue to do so.
Event Wins: The number of times this player has placed first in this event. This measures a player's dominance in this event, and it also recognizes new players who have not competed for very long in this event but deserve to be feared.
Using a secret formula, the computer assigns weights to each of these factors, adds the results together, and caps an individual's rating at a maximum of 10. (Yes, in spite of their looks, some players can still be rated perfect 10's at WBC.) This can be interpreted as the team points that each player on each team is predicted to earn in their chosen team event.
Predicted Team Points: Although the computer is perfect in its individual player evaluations, players invariably underperform for a variety of reasons beyond the computer's control. That is why we actually compete in tournaments rather than just concede to the player who deserves to win. Therefore, the computer discounts the overall team scoring to something less than the sum of the four individual player predicted points. The computer does not know which of your team mates will underperform, but it knows somebody will, and you can blame your team's loss on them!
Odds of Winning: By some sort of magic, the computer knows how many total predicted points all the teams combined are expected to earn (once all the teams are registered). Using complex algebra beyond the scope of human comprehension (but taught in community colleges everywhere), your team's share of those points determine your odds of winning. Adding all of the odds together for all teams combined results in a combined probability where there is a 100% chance that exactly one team will win (after tie-breakers).
The computer has never been wrong in its odds-making. It is the players that disappoint by not performing up to their potential. Blame it on the dice, but not the computer.