2019 Happy Handicapper Commentary

The Highland Handicap

Last updated July 3, 2019.

By Stuart “The Happy Handicapper” Tucker

2019 Part 5 — July 2, 2019

It is post time!! Can you feel the excitement in the air? Even this year’s tight deadline did not hold back the top prospects from the field (well, maybe a couple). This year’s field of 76 teams is full of strong contenders. So, let’s get right to it. My Pick Ten begins with the battle-tested favorites of the field. All five of them are threats to win four events each, so book all them into your card. Then, I need to be a little more selective as we go down the odds list. That second tier has a lot of talent, but I’m sticking to my usual advice: leave a few slots for longer shots to differentiate yourself from the field of entries in the Pick Ten contest. So, my next three picks are Uncivil Servants, Robbing Peter to Pay Paul, and Iron Meeples. I can’t quite find any real longshots, though. I could be surprised by an unknown team like The Pros from Dover (12000-1), or Blacksburg Bombers (4000-1), but they are extreme choices, indeed. Having seen last year how unlikely the longshots were, I’m going with two teams that are better than average, the top Canadians of Dice Loving Canucks – Heroes (52-1) and, finally, TerraFarmers (61-1). I’m not picking any longer than average teams, but if you want to take a stab in that direction, go with Princess & the Frogs (97-1) or Non-Sentient Beings (140-1).

Tucker’s Pick Ten:

The Harry B’s (21-1)
Nest of Spies (23-1)
The Western PA Social Club (24-1)
The Siegelmen (28-1)
Band of Fools (30-1)
Uncivil Servants (33-1)
Robbing Peter to Pay Paul (38-1)
Iron Meeples (43-1)
Dice Loving Canucks – Heroes (52-1)
TerraFarmers (61-1)

Team Power Ratings			Teams Reporting	45
Rank	Entry	Team	Power Rating*	Odds
1	1	The Harry B's	543	21-1
2	41	Nest of Spies	489	23-1
3	33	The Western PA Social Club	462	24-1
4	9	The Siegelmen	406	28-1
5	73	Band of Fools	384	30-1
6	11	Me & Three Stiffs	364	31-1
7	62	Greenville Mafia: Corleone	356	32-1
8	8	Uncivil Servants	342	33-1
9	39	We Ain't Dead Yet	325	35-1
10	30	Robbing Peter to Pay Paul	299	38-1
11	5	MIT SGS	275	42-1
12	27	Iron Meeples	265	43-1
13	55	Deimos Downers	260	44-1
14	28	ACTS Whisperers	243	47-1
15	68	Gang Greene	231	50-1
16	18	Dice Monkeys	227	51-1
17	34	Canucks - Heroes	223	52-1
18	35	Canucks - Number Ones	217	53-1
19	42	Mantis Shrimp	209	55-1
20	58	School of Sharks	206	56-1
21	23	Lions of Winter - Ice	206	56-1
22	14	St. Paul's Rejects	197	59-1
23	54	A Noble Experiment	192	60-1
24	24	TerraFarmers	191	61-1
25	48	Beach Bums	190	61-1
26	2	Team Medici	189	61-1
27	26	Ghost Division	187	62-1
28	69	Four Random Dudes	182	64-1
29	63	Greenville Mafia: Barzini	178	65-1
30	53	Team Delaware	170	68-1
31	50	One Buck Short	161	72-1
32	15	Gaming Speed Bumps	160	73-1
33	60	Pardon My French	138	84-1
34	13	Naps Are Underrated	137	85-1
35	4	THB + Nora	134	87-1
36	61	Too Many Hugs	120	97-1
37	40	No Airbags Required	120	97-1
38	7	Princess & the Frogs	120	97-1
39	43	Train Conductors	119	98-1
40	6	Team CPAP	115	101-1
41	57	EPGS Mountin' Laurels	106	110-1
42	32	The Board Maesters	105	110-1
43	64	Greenville Mafia: Tattaglia	103	110-1
44	65	Greenville Mafia: Cuneo	101	120-1
45	45	The Other Shea Family	100	120-1
46	19	Mighty Dice	100	120-1
47	16	The Carlisle Conspiracy	99	120-1
48	29	P.A.N.I.C.	89	130-1
49	21	Possum Gamers	88	130-1
50	20	Non-Sentient Beings	82	140-1
51	44	Hostel Intent	80	150-1
52	51	Next Gen Tactics	79	150-1
53	59	Local Yokels	78	150-1
54	75	JaKKaL and Hide	77	150-1
55	52	3000m Meeplechase	77	150-1
56	76	Team Undecided	76	150-1
57	22	Lions of Winter - Fire	73	160-1
58	46	Aces & Eights	71	160-1
59	25	Kromp-on-Krewe	67	170-1
60	3	No Dice	65	180-1
61	56	Los Lobos Locos	63	190-1
62	49	Moose Eating Bat	60	200-1
63	17	Meeple Syrup	60	200-1
64	72	Sweep the Leg	58	200-1
65	47	I Like Waffles	54	220-1
66	31	Robo Dobby	47	250-1
67	12	Two Off the Top	37	300-1
68	37	Canucks - Fighters	31	400-1
69	67	Greenville Mafia: The Outfit	30	400-1
70	66	Greenville Mafia: Stracchi	27	400-1
71	70	Scrubbitude	17	700-1
72	36	Canucks - SODS	15	800-1
73	38	Canucks - Younguns	11	1100-1
74	74	Blacksburg Bombers	3	4000-1
75	10	Klayder's Crew	2	6000-1
76	71	The Pros From Dover	1	12000-1
*A team's Power Rating is the sum of its players' Baton Ratings.

2019 Part 4 — June 27, 2019

With the deadline drawing near, the field is growing. As expected, two top favorites have returned. The defending champions, The Western PA Social Club (29-1), are back intact. Nest of Spies (27-1) brings the return of the Dockter. Other top contenders have returned as well, including the beloved We Ain’t Dead Yet (42-1), Robbing Peter to Pay Paul (45-1), and Iron Meeples (51-1)—all quite capable of winning it all. The Dice Loving Canucks add another team this year and continue to lengthen their names. Certainly their Heroes (61-1) and Number Ones (63-1) are viable picks. Meanwhile, three of their teams are begging for respect, and maybe a little talent, languishing as very long shots. Team membership and name changes have altered the odds for the Lions of Winter. No Airbags Required (115-1) are going without their chief airbag, Welage. TerraFarmers (72-1) poached talent from Wabbit’s Wevenge, how will they respond?

Remember, these odds are based on an assumed field size similar to last year. If the early deadline catches many significant teams out, the final odds will sink accordingly. We still await at least a dozen teams that are more favorites than long shots. Hurry up and get stabled!!!

Team Power Ratings			Teams Reporting	76
Rank	Entry	Team	Power Rating*	Odds
1	1	The Harry B's	543	25-1
2	41	Nest of Spies	489	27-1
3	33	The Western PA Social Club	462	29-1
4	9	The Siegelmen	406	33-1
5	11	Me & 3 Stiffs	364	37-1
6	8	Uncivil Servants	342	40-1
7	39	We Ain't Dead Yet	325	42-1
8	30	Robbing Peter to Pay Paul	299	45-1
9	5	MIT SGS	275	49-1
10	27	Iron Meeples	265	51-1
11	28	ACTS Whisperers	243	56-1
12	18	Dice Monkeys	227	60-1
13	34	Canucks - Heroes	223	61-1
14	35	Canucks - Number Ones	217	63-1
15	42	Mantis Shrimp	209	65-1
16	23	Lions of Winter - Ice	206	66-1
17	14	St. Paul's Rejects	197	69-1
18	24	TerraFarmers	191	72-1
19	2	Team Medici	189	72-1
20	26	Ghost Division	187	73-1
21	15	Gaming Speed Bumps	160	86-1
22	13	Naps Are Underrated	137	100-1
23	4	THB + Nora	134	103-1
24	7	Princess & the Frogs	120	115-1
25	40	No Airbags Required	120	115-1
26	43	Train Conductors	119	116-1
27	21	Possum Gamers	118	117-1
28	6	Team CPAP	115	120-1
29	32	The Board Maesters	105	130-1
30	19	Mighty Dice	100	140-1
31	45	The Other Shea Family	100	140-1
32	16	The Carlisle Conspiracy	99	140-1
33	29	P.A.N.I.C.	89	150-1
34	20	Non-Sentient Beings	82	170-1
35	44	Hostel Intent	80	170-1
36	22	Lions of Winter - Fire	73	190-1
37	25	Kromp-on-Krewe	67	210-1
38	3	No Dice	65	210-1
39	17	Meeple Syrup	60	230-1
40	31	Robo Dobby	47	290-1
41	12	Two Off the Top	37	400-1
42	37	Canucks - Fighters	31	400-1
43	36	Canucks - SODS	15	900-1
44	38	Canucks - Younguns	11	1300-1
45	10	Klayder's Crew	2	6600-1
*A team's Power Rating is the sum of its players' Baton Ratings.

2019 Part 3 — June 25, 2019

Many stables are a bit slow to come out of the paddock, but here we see some fine challengers lining up as the parade of competitors begins. Me & Three Stiffs (35-1) returns this year with Gaberson returning for the wilderness. Dice Monkeys (57-1) are also tough competition, though hindered by the small size of their events. St. Paul’s Rejects (66-1) are back after missing a year, but they remain a two-horse team. Gaming Speed Bumps (82-1) has lost a wheel at the last bump. Naps are Underrated (96-1) snagged the Swedish Ace. The Lions of Winter splintered and remixed, expanding into three teams. Only TerraFarmers (99-1) appear to have the talent to win; they certainly are returning from an excellent 2018. Kromp-on-Krewe (200-1) sticks together through a long drought. The remainder are, ahem, unremarkable.

Less than a week to go. Get into gear, teams!!!

Team Power Ratings			Teams Reporting	25
Rank	Entry	Team	Power Rating*	Odds
1	1	The Harry B's	543	23-1
2	9	The Siegelmen	406	32-1
3	11	Me & 3 Stiffs	364	35-1
4	8	Uncivil Servants	342	38-1
5	5	MIT SGS	275	47-1
6	18	Dice Monkeys	227	57-1
7	14	St. Paul's Rejects	197	66-1
8	2	Team Medici	189	69-1
9	15	Gaming Speed Bumps	160	82-1
10	13	Naps Are Underrated	137	96-1
11	4	THB + Nora	134	98-1
12	24	TerraFarmers	132	99-1
13	7	Princess & the Frogs	120	110-1
14	21	Possum Gamers	118	110-1
15	6	Team CPAP	115	110-1
16	19	Mighty Dice	100	130-1
17	16	The Carlisle Conspiracy	99	130-1
18	20	Non-Sentient Beings	82	160-1
19	22	Lions of Winter - Fire	73	180-1
20	17	Meeple Syrup	71	190-1
21	25	Kromp-on-Krewe	67	200-1
22	3	No Dice	65	200-1
23	23	Lions of Winter - Ice	53	250-1
24	12	Two Off the Top	37	400-1
25	10	Klayder's Crew	2	6600-1
*A team's Power Rating is the sum of its players' Baton Ratings.

2019 Part 2 — June 12, 2019

The Morning Line of our Racing Form shows the return of the Reiff-less Harry B’s (23-1) for another run for the laurels. The perennial class of the field fell a little short last year, so they return this year seeking vengeance not only for being slighted last year by this humble handicapper, but also for being bested by Reiff’s The Western PA Social Club. Motivation is a wonderful thing. Not only do they deserve their favored status by the oddsmaker, but also they gain the nod this year by being pre-announced as one of my Pick Ten choices.

Another top early entry is The Siegelmen (31-1), who are coming in this year having had an “off-year” of only placing sixth. Yes, we expect better this year. Also, overdue for success is Uncivil Servants (37-1) who are a good bet to bounce back from a bad year. Always a contender, MIT SGS (46-1) is missing Sohn this year, but remains a heavyweight contender.

Let’s give a shout out to the successes of Princess & the Frogs (110-1), who move up significantly in the odds rankings this year. The Cornetts field a respectable Team Medici (67-1). And Titan: The Arena champ Nora leads a youthful team from the mid-ranks: THB + Nora (96-1). What can we say about Team CPAP (110-1)? At least they’ll be well-rested.

I believe that No Dice (200-1) will live down to their name. Bringing up what may stand up to be this year’s rear of the field, we have Klayder’s Crew (6500-1), distinctly without Klayder. Where’s Klayder? Will this be the hallway game of the week? Where’s Klayder?

Team Power Ratings			Teams Reporting	10
Rank	Entry	Team	Power Rating*	Odds
1	1	The Harry B's	543	23-1
2	9	The Siegelmen	406	31-1
3	8	Uncivil Servants	342	37-1
4	5	MIT SGS	275	46-1
5	2	Team Medici	189	67-1
6	4	THB + Nora	134	96-1
7	7	Princess & the Frogs	120	110-1
8	6	Team CPAP	115	110-1
9	3	No Dice	65	200-1
10	10	Klayder's Crew	2	6500-1
*A team's Power Rating is the sum of its players' Baton Ratings.

While the registration deadline will have passed before you read this, there is plenty of registered talent to be fielded on your dream team. You just a few weeks more for the Team deadline, so don’t delay. We all ( well, most of us) are rooting for the unseating of the reigning Team Champion. Search out those event ringers to anchor your stable.

2019 Part 1 — June 10, 2019

The deadlines for the Team Tournament at the World Boardgame Championships are a little earlier this year, so it is time to get a move on forming teams and assessing the field for the Bracket Busting competition. You have three weeks to enter your teams. As usual, I expect a highly competitive field to emerge. Before launching into this year’s predictions, let us take a look at last year’s effort.

I may have fallen short in bracket busting the competition with my Pick Ten last year, but it was gratifying to see so many contestants using many of my favorites in their lists. While my Pick Ten choices only yielded four correct choices in the actual top ten, all ten of my choices landed in the top 24. The team champions, The Western PA Social Club, were among my choices. The winner of the Bracket Busting utilized a heavy dose of favorites, plus he banked on his own team to pull him above the rest. Bravo!!!

Tucker’s 2018 Pick Ten & Result:

Nest of Spies (21-1) - 9th
The Western PA Social Club (26-1) 1st
The Siegelmen (28-1) - 6th
Band of Fools (30-1) - 19th
Wabbit’s Wevenge (33-1) - 20th
Robbing Peter to Pay Paul (40-1) - 13th
MIT SGS (41-1) - 24th
Gang Greene (43-1) - 18th
The Flying Circus (58-1) - 11th
Canucks: Alphas (60-1) - 3rd

Only three teams with odds longer than average finished in the top ten last year. The favorites this year again will be those teams with no significant weak links among their four members. Unless there is a significant scattering of personnel, this handicapper will be making these five teams the favorites (all of which finished in the top ten last year):

Nest of Spies
The Harry B’s
The Western PA Social Club
The Siegelmen
Hold on to yer butts (in whatever new name they choose)

This year I’m modifying my Baton Ratings formula and the resulting odds for teams will reflect this change, I hope for the better. Recognizing that some players are beginning to dabble in new events to pick up the bonus point, I’ve introduced a fifth ranking to the formula—Range. This adds points to a Baton Rating for the breadth of events that player has mastered to the point of scoring laurels. This may have the effect of slightly boosting Eurogamers in the rankings, and dampening the relative value of one-horse wagons, if you will. The actual impact on team odds may be minimal, but I though I should mention this as the Power Rating numbers for teams are visibly higher.

Let the scramble for teammates begin!!!