Last updated July 3, 2019. |
By Stuart “The Happy Handicapper” Tucker |
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It is post time!! Can you feel the excitement in the air? Even this year’s tight deadline did not hold back the top prospects from the field (well, maybe a couple). This year’s field of 76 teams is full of strong contenders. So, let’s get right to it. My Pick Ten begins with the battle-tested favorites of the field. All five of them are threats to win four events each, so book all them into your card. Then, I need to be a little more selective as we go down the odds list. That second tier has a lot of talent, but I’m sticking to my usual advice: leave a few slots for longer shots to differentiate yourself from the field of entries in the Pick Ten contest. So, my next three picks are Uncivil Servants, Robbing Peter to Pay Paul, and Iron Meeples. I can’t quite find any real longshots, though. I could be surprised by an unknown team like The Pros from Dover (12000-1), or Blacksburg Bombers (4000-1), but they are extreme choices, indeed. Having seen last year how unlikely the longshots were, I’m going with two teams that are better than average, the top Canadians of Dice Loving Canucks – Heroes (52-1) and, finally, TerraFarmers (61-1). I’m not picking any longer than average teams, but if you want to take a stab in that direction, go with Princess & the Frogs (97-1) or Non-Sentient Beings (140-1).
Tucker’s Pick Ten:
- The Harry B’s (21-1)
- Nest of Spies (23-1)
- The Western PA Social Club (24-1)
- The Siegelmen (28-1)
- Band of Fools (30-1)
- Uncivil Servants (33-1)
- Robbing Peter to Pay Paul (38-1)
- Iron Meeples (43-1)
- Dice Loving Canucks – Heroes (52-1)
- TerraFarmers (61-1)
Team Power Ratings | Teams Reporting | 45 |
Rank | Entry | Team |
Power Rating* | Odds |
1 | 1 | The Harry B's | 543 | 21-1 |
2 | 41 | Nest of Spies | 489 | 23-1 |
3 | 33 | The Western PA Social Club | 462 | 24-1 |
4 | 9 | The Siegelmen | 406 | 28-1 |
5 | 73 | Band of Fools | 384 | 30-1 |
6 | 11 | Me & Three Stiffs | 364 | 31-1 |
7 | 62 | Greenville Mafia: Corleone | 356 | 32-1 |
8 | 8 | Uncivil Servants | 342 | 33-1 |
9 | 39 | We Ain't Dead Yet | 325 | 35-1 |
10 | 30 | Robbing Peter to Pay Paul | 299 | 38-1 |
11 | 5 | MIT SGS | 275 | 42-1 |
12 | 27 | Iron Meeples | 265 | 43-1 |
13 | 55 | Deimos Downers | 260 | 44-1 |
14 | 28 | ACTS Whisperers | 243 | 47-1 |
15 | 68 | Gang Greene | 231 | 50-1 |
16 | 18 | Dice Monkeys | 227 | 51-1 |
17 | 34 | Canucks - Heroes | 223 | 52-1 |
18 | 35 | Canucks - Number Ones | 217 | 53-1 |
19 | 42 | Mantis Shrimp | 209 | 55-1 |
20 | 58 | School of Sharks | 206 | 56-1 |
21 | 23 | Lions of Winter - Ice | 206 | 56-1 |
22 | 14 | St. Paul's Rejects | 197 | 59-1 |
23 | 54 | A Noble Experiment | 192 | 60-1 |
24 | 24 | TerraFarmers | 191 | 61-1 |
25 | 48 | Beach Bums | 190 | 61-1 |
26 | 2 | Team Medici | 189 | 61-1 |
27 | 26 | Ghost Division | 187 | 62-1 |
28 | 69 | Four Random Dudes | 182 | 64-1 |
29 | 63 | Greenville Mafia: Barzini | 178 | 65-1 |
30 | 53 | Team Delaware | 170 | 68-1 |
31 | 50 | One Buck Short | 161 | 72-1 |
32 | 15 | Gaming Speed Bumps | 160 | 73-1 |
33 | 60 | Pardon My French | 138 | 84-1 |
34 | 13 | Naps Are Underrated | 137 | 85-1 |
35 | 4 | THB + Nora | 134 | 87-1 |
36 | 61 | Too Many Hugs | 120 | 97-1 |
37 | 40 | No Airbags Required | 120 | 97-1 |
38 | 7 | Princess & the Frogs | 120 | 97-1 |
39 | 43 | Train Conductors | 119 | 98-1 |
40 | 6 | Team CPAP | 115 | 101-1 |
41 | 57 | EPGS Mountin' Laurels | 106 | 110-1 |
42 | 32 | The Board Maesters | 105 | 110-1 |
43 | 64 | Greenville Mafia: Tattaglia | 103 | 110-1 |
44 | 65 | Greenville Mafia: Cuneo | 101 | 120-1 |
45 | 45 | The Other Shea Family | 100 | 120-1 |
46 | 19 | Mighty Dice | 100 | 120-1 |
47 | 16 | The Carlisle Conspiracy | 99 | 120-1 |
48 | 29 | P.A.N.I.C. | 89 | 130-1 |
49 | 21 | Possum Gamers | 88 | 130-1 |
50 | 20 | Non-Sentient Beings | 82 | 140-1 |
51 | 44 | Hostel Intent | 80 | 150-1 |
52 | 51 | Next Gen Tactics | 79 | 150-1 |
53 | 59 | Local Yokels | 78 | 150-1 |
54 | 75 | JaKKaL and Hide | 77 | 150-1 |
55 | 52 | 3000m Meeplechase | 77 | 150-1 |
56 | 76 | Team Undecided | 76 | 150-1 |
57 | 22 | Lions of Winter - Fire | 73 | 160-1 |
58 | 46 | Aces & Eights | 71 | 160-1 |
59 | 25 | Kromp-on-Krewe | 67 | 170-1 |
60 | 3 | No Dice | 65 | 180-1 |
61 | 56 | Los Lobos Locos | 63 | 190-1 |
62 | 49 | Moose Eating Bat | 60 | 200-1 |
63 | 17 | Meeple Syrup | 60 | 200-1 |
64 | 72 | Sweep the Leg | 58 | 200-1 |
65 | 47 | I Like Waffles | 54 | 220-1 |
66 | 31 | Robo Dobby | 47 | 250-1 |
67 | 12 | Two Off the Top | 37 | 300-1 |
68 | 37 | Canucks - Fighters | 31 | 400-1 |
69 | 67 | Greenville Mafia: The Outfit | 30 | 400-1 |
70 | 66 | Greenville Mafia: Stracchi | 27 | 400-1 |
71 | 70 | Scrubbitude | 17 | 700-1 |
72 | 36 | Canucks - SODS | 15 | 800-1 |
73 | 38 | Canucks - Younguns | 11 | 1100-1 |
74 | 74 | Blacksburg Bombers | 3 | 4000-1 |
75 | 10 | Klayder's Crew | 2 | 6000-1 |
76 | 71 | The Pros From Dover | 1 | 12000-1 |
*A team's Power Rating is the sum of its players' Baton Ratings. |
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With the deadline drawing near, the field is growing. As expected, two top favorites have returned. The defending champions, The Western PA Social Club (29-1), are back intact. Nest of Spies (27-1) brings the return of the Dockter. Other top contenders have returned as well, including the beloved We Ain’t Dead Yet (42-1), Robbing Peter to Pay Paul (45-1), and Iron Meeples (51-1)—all quite capable of winning it all. The Dice Loving Canucks add another team this year and continue to lengthen their names. Certainly their Heroes (61-1) and Number Ones (63-1) are viable picks. Meanwhile, three of their teams are begging for respect, and maybe a little talent, languishing as very long shots. Team membership and name changes have altered the odds for the Lions of Winter. No Airbags Required (115-1) are going without their chief airbag, Welage. TerraFarmers (72-1) poached talent from Wabbit’s Wevenge, how will they respond?
Remember, these odds are based on an assumed field size similar to last year. If the early deadline catches many significant teams out, the final odds will sink accordingly. We still await at least a dozen teams that are more favorites than long shots. Hurry up and get stabled!!!
Team Power Ratings | Teams Reporting | 76 |
Rank | Entry | Team |
Power Rating* | Odds |
1 | 1 | The Harry B's | 543 | 25-1 |
2 | 41 | Nest of Spies | 489 | 27-1 |
3 | 33 | The Western PA Social Club | 462 | 29-1 |
4 | 9 | The Siegelmen | 406 | 33-1 |
5 | 11 | Me & 3 Stiffs | 364 | 37-1 |
6 | 8 | Uncivil Servants | 342 | 40-1 |
7 | 39 | We Ain't Dead Yet | 325 | 42-1 |
8 | 30 | Robbing Peter to Pay Paul | 299 | 45-1 |
9 | 5 | MIT SGS | 275 | 49-1 |
10 | 27 | Iron Meeples | 265 | 51-1 |
11 | 28 | ACTS Whisperers | 243 | 56-1 |
12 | 18 | Dice Monkeys | 227 | 60-1 |
13 | 34 | Canucks - Heroes | 223 | 61-1 |
14 | 35 | Canucks - Number Ones | 217 | 63-1 |
15 | 42 | Mantis Shrimp | 209 | 65-1 |
16 | 23 | Lions of Winter - Ice | 206 | 66-1 |
17 | 14 | St. Paul's Rejects | 197 | 69-1 |
18 | 24 | TerraFarmers | 191 | 72-1 |
19 | 2 | Team Medici | 189 | 72-1 |
20 | 26 | Ghost Division | 187 | 73-1 |
21 | 15 | Gaming Speed Bumps | 160 | 86-1 |
22 | 13 | Naps Are Underrated | 137 | 100-1 |
23 | 4 | THB + Nora | 134 | 103-1 |
24 | 7 | Princess & the Frogs | 120 | 115-1 |
25 | 40 | No Airbags Required | 120 | 115-1 |
26 | 43 | Train Conductors | 119 | 116-1 |
27 | 21 | Possum Gamers | 118 | 117-1 |
28 | 6 | Team CPAP | 115 | 120-1 |
29 | 32 | The Board Maesters | 105 | 130-1 |
30 | 19 | Mighty Dice | 100 | 140-1 |
31 | 45 | The Other Shea Family | 100 | 140-1 |
32 | 16 | The Carlisle Conspiracy | 99 | 140-1 |
33 | 29 | P.A.N.I.C. | 89 | 150-1 |
34 | 20 | Non-Sentient Beings | 82 | 170-1 |
35 | 44 | Hostel Intent | 80 | 170-1 |
36 | 22 | Lions of Winter - Fire | 73 | 190-1 |
37 | 25 | Kromp-on-Krewe | 67 | 210-1 |
38 | 3 | No Dice | 65 | 210-1 |
39 | 17 | Meeple Syrup | 60 | 230-1 |
40 | 31 | Robo Dobby | 47 | 290-1 |
41 | 12 | Two Off the Top | 37 | 400-1 |
42 | 37 | Canucks - Fighters | 31 | 400-1 |
43 | 36 | Canucks - SODS | 15 | 900-1 |
44 | 38 | Canucks - Younguns | 11 | 1300-1 |
45 | 10 | Klayder's Crew | 2 | 6600-1 |
*A team's Power Rating is the sum of its players' Baton Ratings. |
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Many stables are a bit slow to come out of the paddock, but here we see some fine challengers lining up as the parade of competitors begins. Me & Three Stiffs (35-1) returns this year with Gaberson returning for the wilderness. Dice Monkeys (57-1) are also tough competition, though hindered by the small size of their events. St. Paul’s Rejects (66-1) are back after missing a year, but they remain a two-horse team. Gaming Speed Bumps (82-1) has lost a wheel at the last bump. Naps are Underrated (96-1) snagged the Swedish Ace. The Lions of Winter splintered and remixed, expanding into three teams. Only TerraFarmers (99-1) appear to have the talent to win; they certainly are returning from an excellent 2018. Kromp-on-Krewe (200-1) sticks together through a long drought. The remainder are, ahem, unremarkable.
Less than a week to go. Get into gear, teams!!!
Team Power Ratings | Teams Reporting | 25 |
Rank | Entry | Team |
Power Rating* | Odds |
1 | 1 | The Harry B's | 543 | 23-1 |
2 | 9 | The Siegelmen | 406 | 32-1 |
3 | 11 | Me & 3 Stiffs | 364 | 35-1 |
4 | 8 | Uncivil Servants | 342 | 38-1 |
5 | 5 | MIT SGS | 275 | 47-1 |
6 | 18 | Dice Monkeys | 227 | 57-1 |
7 | 14 | St. Paul's Rejects | 197 | 66-1 |
8 | 2 | Team Medici | 189 | 69-1 |
9 | 15 | Gaming Speed Bumps | 160 | 82-1 |
10 | 13 | Naps Are Underrated | 137 | 96-1 |
11 | 4 | THB + Nora | 134 | 98-1 |
12 | 24 | TerraFarmers | 132 | 99-1 |
13 | 7 | Princess & the Frogs | 120 | 110-1 |
14 | 21 | Possum Gamers | 118 | 110-1 |
15 | 6 | Team CPAP | 115 | 110-1 |
16 | 19 | Mighty Dice | 100 | 130-1 |
17 | 16 | The Carlisle Conspiracy | 99 | 130-1 |
18 | 20 | Non-Sentient Beings | 82 | 160-1 |
19 | 22 | Lions of Winter - Fire | 73 | 180-1 |
20 | 17 | Meeple Syrup | 71 | 190-1 |
21 | 25 | Kromp-on-Krewe | 67 | 200-1 |
22 | 3 | No Dice | 65 | 200-1 |
23 | 23 | Lions of Winter - Ice | 53 | 250-1 |
24 | 12 | Two Off the Top | 37 | 400-1 |
25 | 10 | Klayder's Crew | 2 | 6600-1 |
*A team's Power Rating is the sum of its players' Baton Ratings. |
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The Morning Line of our Racing Form shows the return of the Reiff-less Harry B’s (23-1) for another run for the laurels. The perennial class of the field fell a little short last year, so they return this year seeking vengeance not only for being slighted last year by this humble handicapper, but also for being bested by Reiff’s The Western PA Social Club. Motivation is a wonderful thing. Not only do they deserve their favored status by the oddsmaker, but also they gain the nod this year by being pre-announced as one of my Pick Ten choices.
Another top early entry is The Siegelmen (31-1), who are coming in this year having had an “off-year” of only placing sixth. Yes, we expect better this year. Also, overdue for success is Uncivil Servants (37-1) who are a good bet to bounce back from a bad year. Always a contender, MIT SGS (46-1) is missing Sohn this year, but remains a heavyweight contender.
Let’s give a shout out to the successes of Princess & the Frogs (110-1), who move up significantly in the odds rankings this year. The Cornetts field a respectable Team Medici (67-1). And Titan: The Arena champ Nora leads a youthful team from the mid-ranks: THB + Nora (96-1). What can we say about Team CPAP (110-1)? At least they’ll be well-rested.
I believe that No Dice (200-1) will live down to their name. Bringing up what may stand up to be this year’s rear of the field, we have Klayder’s Crew (6500-1), distinctly without Klayder. Where’s Klayder? Will this be the hallway game of the week? Where’s Klayder?
Team Power Ratings | Teams Reporting | 10 |
Rank | Entry | Team |
Power Rating* | Odds |
1 | 1 | The Harry B's | 543 | 23-1 |
2 | 9 | The Siegelmen | 406 | 31-1 |
3 | 8 | Uncivil Servants | 342 | 37-1 |
4 | 5 | MIT SGS | 275 | 46-1 |
5 | 2 | Team Medici | 189 | 67-1 |
6 | 4 | THB + Nora | 134 | 96-1 |
7 | 7 | Princess & the Frogs | 120 | 110-1 |
8 | 6 | Team CPAP | 115 | 110-1 |
9 | 3 | No Dice | 65 | 200-1 |
10 | 10 | Klayder's Crew | 2 | 6500-1 |
*A team's Power Rating is the sum of its players' Baton Ratings. |
While the registration deadline will have passed before you read this, there is plenty of registered talent to be fielded on your dream team. You just a few weeks more for the Team deadline, so don’t delay. We all ( well, most of us) are rooting for the unseating of the reigning Team Champion. Search out those event ringers to anchor your stable.
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The deadlines for the Team Tournament at the World Boardgame Championships are a little earlier this year, so it is time to get a move on forming teams and assessing the field for the Bracket Busting competition. You have three weeks to enter your teams. As usual, I expect a highly competitive field to emerge. Before launching into this year’s predictions, let us take a look at last year’s effort.
I may have fallen short in bracket busting the competition with my Pick Ten last year, but it was gratifying to see so many contestants using many of my favorites in their lists. While my Pick Ten choices only yielded four correct choices in the actual top ten, all ten of my choices landed in the top 24. The team champions, The Western PA Social Club, were among my choices. The winner of the Bracket Busting utilized a heavy dose of favorites, plus he banked on his own team to pull him above the rest. Bravo!!!
Tucker’s 2018 Pick Ten & Result:
- Nest of Spies (21-1) - 9th
- The Western PA Social Club (26-1) 1st
- The Siegelmen (28-1) - 6th
- Band of Fools (30-1) - 19th
- Wabbit’s Wevenge (33-1) - 20th
- Robbing Peter to Pay Paul (40-1) - 13th
- MIT SGS (41-1) - 24th
- Gang Greene (43-1) - 18th
- The Flying Circus (58-1) - 11th
- Canucks: Alphas (60-1) - 3rd
Only three teams with odds longer than average finished in the top ten last year. The favorites this year again will be those teams with no significant weak links among their four members. Unless there is a significant scattering of personnel, this handicapper will be making these five teams the favorites (all of which finished in the top ten last year):
- Nest of Spies
- The Harry B’s
- The Western PA Social Club
- The Siegelmen
- Hold on to yer butts (in whatever new name they choose)
This year I’m modifying my Baton Ratings formula and the resulting odds for teams will reflect this change, I hope for the better. Recognizing that some players are beginning to dabble in new events to pick up the bonus point, I’ve introduced a fifth ranking to the formula—Range. This adds points to a Baton Rating for the breadth of events that player has mastered to the point of scoring laurels. This may have the effect of slightly boosting Eurogamers in the rankings, and dampening the relative value of one-horse wagons, if you will. The actual impact on team odds may be minimal, but I though I should mention this as the Power Rating numbers for teams are visibly higher.
Let the scramble for teammates begin!!!
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