titan: the arena [Updated August 2000]

TTA     

   16    22

   9   21      23   

 

   Md 4  Md 1-2  Md 3     Md 4

Alan Witte, NJ

2000 Champion

2nd: Buddy Sinigaglio, CO

3rd: Bruce Monnin, OH

4th: Eric Gorr, VA

5th: Josh Githens, SC

6th: Kaarin Engelmann, VA
Event History
1991    None      -
1992    None      -
1993    None      -
1994    None      -
1995    None      -
1996    None      -
1997    Peter Staab       72
1998    Brian Sutton      178
1999    Kaarin Engelmann     115
2000    Alan Witte      97
AREA Ratings
 1    Alan Witte      5295
 2    James Camp      5294
 3    James Campbell      5223
 4    Craig Melton      5174
 5    Bruce Monnin      5173
 6    Eric Gorr      5171
 7    John Greene      5166
 8    John Coussis      5154
 9    Jerry Ohlinger      5150
10    Kaarin Englemann      5134

Always a titanic struggle ...

This year there were only 24 matches completed in the preliminary rounds compared to last year's 38. Unlike last year's need to enter multiple heats to guarantee advancement, the qualifiers only had to win one heat to advance in this year's tournament. Like last year, the winners from each table of five players (only one table had 4 players) again had to survive a campaign of two consecutive games with the winner determined by the combined ducat score from both games. In an improvement over last year, the players randomly determined seating order at the beginning of each game.

Since all winners of the preliminary heats advanced, with the semi-final tables being power-seeded with the first table having the 1st, 6th, 11th, 16th and 21st seeds playing, etc., there was a need for a different set of tie-breakers than last year. This year, all winners were sorted on the basis of the point-differential over the second-place finisher and then by their percentage of the total table points. Second place finishers were sorted by closest to the first place finisher, and then by their percentage of the total table points. This seemed to result in better seeding as evidenced by the 13th seed being the lowest to advance into the finals. For the semi's, we had all but one qualifier show for the elimination rounds and were able to fill the slots with two runner-ups who finished tied with first-place, Paul Weintraub and Mike Hazel. Since I wanted to remain a neutral GM during the playoffs, my slot was taken by the next available player, John Chung.

The highest score during the tournament was recorded by Ewan McNay with 29 chips followed by Winston Forrest and Joshua Githens with 28 chips each. Battling for "futility" honors was John Emery with three chips in the qualifiers and Brian Barwick in a strange semi-finals match.

Alan Witte, the 13th seed, emerged victorious over the top seed, Ewan McNay, from the first SF table by scoring 12 points in both games with Troll and Unicorn secret bets. Sue Ellsworth, Gerald Lientz and Eric Eshelman also played at this table. Josh Githens, the third seed, was a winner in the strange SF match where all players had scored six points in the first game except Brian Barwick with zero points. The second game broke the four-way tie when Joshua scored 12 points while the others scored six again (except Brian who got only three more points). Josh had Troll and Hydra as his secret bids. Paul Weintraub, Trevor Bender and Winston Forrest were in this game. In the third SF game, Bruce Monnin (ninth seed) came from next to last place in the first game to defeat Justin Veazey, the fourth seed, by making sure that Justin blanked in scoring during the second game. Bruce went with the double Hydra secret wagers to win his match to advance. Bruce also defeated Bill Beckman, Mike Ellsworth

In the first game of the Final, Buddy went into the lead early with 14 points and a secret bet on the Unicorn. Bruce (12 points) and Eric (8 points) joined Buddy in betting on the Unicorn. This game seemed to be somewhat driven by group-think on these secret bets. Alan remained within striking distance with 12 points and a secret bid on the Troll. Josh had his secret bet on the Warlock who bought the farm and came in last in the first game with only three points. In the second game, the players again managed a "triple" with secret bets on the Cyclops by Buddy, Bruce and Alan. The secret bids by Josh (Troll) and Eric (Dragon) both took a dirt bath during the course of the game and eliminated their chances at TTA glory. Josh came in last with seven total ducats, and Eric placed fourth with 13 points. Placing second was Buddy with 22 points and then Bruce Monnin was third with 22 points also. The new TTA Champion was Alan Witte with 26 points total. All hail the new Titan!


Stats

One of the nice things that we did during this 2000 WBC TTA Tournament was to fill out a relatively extensive data sheet that recorded secret bets and creature kills for each campaign. I thank those people who took the time to complete these charts during their games. Their efforts are what I used to derive the following analyses.

There were 30 campaigns played resulting in 60 total games. Of those, only 55 games were evaluated because the rest of the games had incomplete or non-legible records. 53 games were five-player versions; only two games were four-players. Please note that this evaluation is limited by three major factors. First, we assumed that secret bets, creature kills and player diplomacy, which happened in the first game, would not unduly influence the second game. I did try to look into evaluating only the first games played, but that resulted in only 28 games available for evaluation and the results were not dramatically different from this complete analysis. Second, we assumed that the likelihood of creature kills and placement of secret bets for each of the different creatures would result in the same expected value. Of course, the differences are what's interesting about this analysis. Finally, these analyses are based upon a rather small sample of less than 60 games and "your mileage may vary".

We looked first at the secret bets that were placed on the different creatures for the evaluated games (here, only 54 games had available records). If we assume that all creatures are just as worthy of secret bets and that initial card play and open bets did not overly influence the choice of subsequent secret bets, we can expect 33.5 bets placed on each creature (52 games with five-players and two games with four-players) and considering a no-secret bet as a mistake.

Secret Bets Placed 

Number

Variance

 Cyclops

27

-6.5

Warlock

30

-3.5

Dragon

32

-1.5

Titan

32

-1.5

Troll

32

-1.5

 Hydra

33

-0.5

Ranger

37

+3.5

Unicorn

38

+4.5

None (expected should be 0)

7

+7.0

What this data suggest is a definite bias against betting on the Cyclops, which is later reinforced by the fact that it is one of the creatures that is killed early. As to whether the lack of secret support dooms the Cyclops to being in the early kill group or whether players just don't like the Cyclops' power, it's unclear from this data (but perhaps the multiple-bid data suggest that the lack of support dooms the Cyclops). However, I would tend to agree with those players who see the Cyclops' as having the most annoying power to the non-backers. I was a bit surprised to see that the powers that I tend to prefer and think of being useful (Dragon, Titan, Troll and Hydra) did not significantly vary from the expected. I would have expected higher positive variance rather than the relatively neutral deviation. I was perplexed somewhat by the positive variance on the Ranger and the Unicorn, since I only find these powers to be helpful in specific situations.

Next, I took a look at which creatures got eliminated first. With 55 games being evaluated, we would expect each creature to be the "First Kill" 6.9 times in this data. As noted, Cyclops got clobbered first rather resoundingly. Also, the Titan was the first creature killed nearly as often. This seems to suggest that these two "annoying" powers that can affect another player's hand tend to bring unfriendly attention rather rapidly. I would suggest from this data that you should not put any secret wagers on these creatures unless you have some additional support and ability to keep them alive.

 First Killed

Number

Variance

Cyclops

12

-5.1

Titan

10

-3.1

Ranger

6

+0.9

Troll

6

+0.9

Warlock

6

+0.9

Dragon

5

+1.9

Hydra

5

+1.9

Unicorn

5

+1.9

Looking further along the continuum at the first three creatures killed in a game, we see that it confirms the "loser" nature of the Cyclops. However, the Titan appears to do much better, once it survives the initial assault for the first kill. Surprisingly, the Troll emerges as an increasingly likely target to be killed when looking at the first three eliminations. Later we will look at a "survivor"-analysis which may suggest that this switch for the Titan and the Troll may be just an anomaly. Based on 55 games evaluated, if this was random, we would expect each creature to be one of the first three creatures eliminated about 20.6 times.

 First Three Killed

Number

Variance

Cyclops

31

-10.4

Troll

26

-5.4

Titan

22

-1.4

Ranger

20

+0.6

Hydra

19

+1.6

Unicorn

16

+4.6

Warlock

16

+4.6

Dragon

15

+5.6

Next, we attempted to determine whom among the TTA creatures would be considered "survivors" and not likely to get "voted" off the arena. With 55 games, we would expect each creature to be one of the three survivors 20.6 times if due to chance only. This analysis merely confirmed that the Cyclops and the Titan were the least likely candidates to remain standing at the end. Also, the Warlock appeared to be slightly vulnerable. The most likely survivors appear to be what I consider to be the two most powerful creatures, the Hydra and the Dragon. In games that I play, I try to convince people that the Hydra and the Dragon must be killed because of their powers, but perhaps I should be looking into betting on them more often.

 Survivor

Number

Variance

Titan

14

-6.6

Cyclops

16

-4.6

Warlock

18

-2.6

Troll

22

+1.4

Ranger

23

+2.4

Unicorn

23

+2.4

Hydra

24

+3.4

Dragon

25

+4.4

As an aside, it should be noted that in most of the games played, the five eliminated creatures were killed by three or four different players. Only in a handful of cases were all the killings done by two different players. In no cases were there the extremes of only one or all five players being involved with the creature eliminations.

Finally, further analyses were done to reflect some of the player interactions that are so important in the dynamics of a multi-player card game such as TTA. Since we don't have actual after-action reports that capture the thoughts, exact bets and card play for this tournament, I attempted to use multiple secret bets on creatures to serve as proxy for some of the player interactions and its effect on creature survival. There were no games with four or five secret bets on the same creature (this would be likely limited by general card distribution at the beginning of the game). However, there were 42 instances of double-secret-bids on one creature and 12 instances of triple-bids on one creature.

 Creature

Double Bets

Deaths

Triple Bets

Deaths

 Unicorn

5

3

4

1

Ranger

9

3

1

0

Troll

3

1

2

0

Titan

4

1

1

0

Dragon

5

1

1

0

Cyclops

3

0

2

0

Warlock

5

0

1

0

Hydra

8

0

0

0

With this analysis, it appears that having multiple-bids on the Unicorn and the Ranger weakens the ability of these creatures to survive. Even with several players interested in the survival of these creatures, they appear to be very vulnerable to elimination. In contrast, while the Cyclops and Warlock may be easily eliminated when backed by only one or no players, they appear to be stronger when backed by several supporters. As expected, the Hydra and the Dragon appear to be generally good bets based on this information.

In summary, there are many limitations to this analyses of TTA and this information should be recognized as only providing general thoughts on creature survivability and some ideas about placing secret bets based upon some actual data. I have already noted some of the caveats earlier, and certainly there are many other strategies that have been discussed about betting and card play for TTA in other forums. This analysis is not meant to be a substitute for good game play, understanding of the game, opponent psychology, card counting, etc., that occurs in any good card game involving bidding. From this data, the two general rules appear to be: 1) be very wary of placing secret bets or bids on the Cyclops and the Titan, and 2) secret bets and bids on the Dragon and the Hydra may be worthwhile and defendable.


TTA 2000 WBC Semi-finalists seeds:
 1. Ewan McNay +11
 2. Robert Sohn +10 - 4-player board; GM did not play in SF
 3. Josh Githens +7
 4. Justin Veazey +6 .299
 5. Christina Hancock +6 .274
 6. Eric Gorr +5
 7. Gerald Lientz +4 .347
 8. Trevor Bender +4 .319
 9. Bruce Monnin +4 .269
10. Buddy Sinigaglio +4 .244
11. Kaarin Englemann +3 .271
12. Mark Love +3 .241 - did not show for SF
13. Alan Witte +2
14. Winston Forrest +1 .326
15. Michael Ellsworth +1 .274
16. David Platnick +1 .267
17. Jon Shambeda +1 .264
18. Todd Surgoine +1 .248
19. Eric Eshleman +1 .240
20. Brian Barwick +1 .238
21. Bill Beckman +1 .223
22. Louis Gehring +0 .259
23. Justin Broessel +0 .253
24. Susan Ellsworth +0 .222
25. Paul Weintraub 2nd 1.000 .259
26. Phil Bradley 2nd 1.000 .253 - did not show for SF
27. Mike Hazel 2nd 1.000 .222
28. John Chung 3rd place finish was highest - needed to fill 25 slots


TITAN THE ARENA JUNIOR

The first round of play at the Junior Titan: The Arena tournament drew 15 entrants. An additional three players later joined in the fun as substitute players for the second and third games. Many of the kids learned how to play the card game for the first time from Assistant GM Kaarin Engelmann (the highly qualified defending WBC Champ of Titan: The Arena). In no time these kids were wheeling and dealing the fate of fantasy beasts in the combat arena, with a few diplomatic skills unlikely to be found in an adult game (though I may yet try tears of anguish for the beautiful Unicorn some day).

The event was run as a three-table, three-game, rotating final "much like the final round of the Galaxy tournament. Each player was assigned a unique table rotation identity and played three times. The pre-set rotation sequence maximized the number of finalists each player would face in the course of the three games, while minimizing the number of repeat opponents. Each player
carted around a scorecard to their next game, while the table scores were reported to the GM. Each player was allowed to inspect his opponents scorecard prior to playing each game. Furthermore, the room "leader" after each round was an open fact for all to use as they saw fit.

The first round of games saw the table victors earning 13-14 points, with Rebecca Hebner leading the pack, closely followed by Chrissey Frattali and Joseph Sposito. Despite earning few or no points, most low-scoring players opted to stick around to play a second game.

When the rotation put Rebecca at a table with four boys, she called for the GMs to prevent gender discrimination in the play of the game. However, on casual observation, she was more than equal to the task of managing the would-be colluders without aid. Indeed, she ended up scoring the day's high game score of 18. Table 2 was a tough battle among players who had done well in the first round. Joseph managed to keep ahead of Chrissey, while fighting off the strong challenge of Mark Wilson. Table 3 was won by Jordan Flawd, but more significantly, Erica Kirchner scored a close second, which combined with her good first-round showing to put her in strong contention for the wood.

The final round began with Rebecca Hebner holding a five-point lead over Joseph Sposito, with Erica Kirchner, Mark Wilson, Lee Rodrigues and Alex Bell with outside shots of catching the leader if her point total could be kept low. Late substitutes Alex Henning and Rebecca Dunn enriched the final round's pool of competitive players. Rebecca Hebner scored her worst of the
day, but still managed to win her table with 12 points, locking up the championship with a whopping 44 points. Joseph Sposito slipped a bit in the face of the new competition, but managed to get ten points for a three-round total of 37 to secure second place. Lee Rodrigues thumped his competition royally (including Erica Kirchner and Alex Bell) at Table 3 to add 15 points
to his total, falling just one point shy of Joseph. Mark Wilson, despite playing in two games against the eventual champ, managed to pull in a total of 33 points to secure fourth.

With Rebecca Hebner about to graduate to the adult tournaments, I foresee a bidding war for her services in the team tournament. Hmmm, I see she's Kaarin Engelmann's niece, raising the tough question of who would make the better TTA baton holder for a team. I understand, though, that Rebecca's tourney skills have already been tested with great success in a number of adult events, as she used the adult events this year to test out strategies and learn new ones from adults before she dove into several Juniors events.

 GM     Robert Sohn  (2nd year)   NA
   NA   NA 

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