Tu Captures Title After 10 Year Absence From Final!

Of the 58 games in the tournament this year, 52 were 4-player. (Note that all statistics provided in this report are for 4-player games) The winning scores this year ranged from 105 to 176 (which occurred in the Final) with an average of 137.29 and a standard deviation of 14.67. This is compared to the 428 4-player games that can be analyzed across the 9 years of the event which has winning scores ranging from 91 to 181 with an average of 134.11 and standard deviation of 14.83. Margin of victory this year ranged from 0 to 36 with an average of 11.61 and a standard deviation of 9.03, which is compared to the overall margin range of 0 to 49 with an average of 11.00 and standard deviation of 9.57. Thus, winning scores and margin of victory were slightly above average this year, with winning scores having slightly lower variability and margin of victory having slightly higher variability. Six games were decided by 2 or fewer points and there were no extremely close games (games with the difference between first and last of less than 10 points).

There were only 2 ties this year and one was in a 3-player game, where both used money to decide between 1stt and 2nd.

Attendance increased from 107 to 118 (10.3%), which is the largest field since 2017, and player starts increased from 205 to 226 (10.2% increase and the largest number of player starts in tournament history). While Heat 1 and Heat 3 player count remained stable (Heat 1: 67 to 65, Heat 3: 58 to 57), Heat 2 player count jumped 24 from 60 to 84 (40%), which makes it the largest Heat in tournament history (the next closest is Heat 3 of 2015 with 80 participants). While no one was turned away due to a lack of games, some helpful players had to go back to their rooms or cars to fetch games, which causes delays for those tables. A big Thank You to everyone that participated in the Lords of Waterdeep tournament this year and remember to Please Bring Your Games Next Year!

The advancement rules remained as Heats: Most Wins - Points (HMW-P), and my advancement guidance remains as: Multiple Wins or Play all three Heats and get a first and a second. There were 10 double Heat winners, one person with a win and a second, two people with a win, a second, and a third, and 2 people with a win, a second, and a fourth. There were 6 people with just a win and a second, of which only one qualified for the Semifinal. For the third year in a row all the qualifiers showed up and I would like to thank the alternates who stopped by to check in.

Generally speaking, the advantage or disadvantage of certain turn order positions are often discussed in gaming. For Lords of Waterdeep, the initial player order is randomly determined, and for subsequent rounds, the first player position can be taken. Thus, one might think that the initial player order doesn’t matter much, and that thought seems to be true when looking at the statistics over the nine years of the event:

• 2025
  • Win % by initial position: 33.33%, 15.69%, 29.41%, 21.57%
  • Average Finish by initial position: 2.39, 2.68, 2.35, 2.57
• All nine years
  • Win % by initial position: 26.87%, 25.00%, 24.30%, 23.83%
  • Average Finish by initial position: 2.52, 2.51, 2.50, 2.46

This year, the win percentage by initial position indicates that seat 1 was again the hot seat winning 33.33% of the time, followed by seat 3 winning 29.41% of the time, seat 4 winning 21.57% of the time, and finally seat 2 well below the expected 25% with winning just 15.69% of the time Overall it does not appear that any initial position has any significant advantage or disadvantage; although I do think it can be advantageous to have the 1st initial position in case there is a good 3 or 4 cost building or plot quest in Cliffwatch Inn in the initial setup.

Before we go into the lord statistics, it should be mentioned that there were two house rules in effect for the tournament for this year:

• If all players at a table agree, then Larissa Neathal (the builder lord) can be removed from the game before dealing out the Lord cards. (introduced in 2017)
  • Apparently, this is a very popular house rule with Larissa Neathal having no reported plays for 2018 and 2019, and generally a very low number of appearances each year.
• If all players at a table agree, then two lords can be dealt to each player, from which players will choose one (right before the game start) to be the lord they use for the game. (introduced in 2018)

The non-response rate for reporting the lord played increased slightly from 11.22% to 11.76%, which is still below the overall average of 13.03%. I would like to thank all the players who filled out the lord reporting section of the score sheet, and I hope we can bring down the non-response rate in the future.

Looking at the results this year, there are some interesting notes:

• Caladorn’s reprieve from the basement in 2024 was revoked
• Kyriani, Nindil, and Brianne all showed notable improvements in win rate year on year, while Durnan appears to have gotten lost while wandering and took Khelben and Caladorn with him
• In terms of average finish Kyriani, Sammereza, and Brianne showed notable improvement year on year, while Khelben had a notable drop and Caladorn worked hard to reach new lows
• It was Kyriani’s year in having noticeable improvements in win percentage and average finish versus her historical average. While Nymara’s win percentage was her historical average, her average finish was much better than her historical average

To assign lords to tiers I have historically considered both win percentage and average finish, mainly by averaging the ranking in both. (Note that this paragraph is using all nine years of data.) By that metric: Larissa is at the top; followed by Mirt, then Brianne, Khelben, and Kyriani in a tier; next Nindil and Nymara in a tier; and then Durnan and Sammereza in a tier; and finally, Piergeiron and Caladorn in their own tiers. Basically, the lord ordering was mostly unchanged, except for Durnan dropping a bit and Nymara improving.

Another way to look at this is due to the advancement tiebreaker’s focus on wins and second places, is to look at the percentage of wins or second places. In which case we have the following table. Either way, Larissa, Khelben, and Mirt are at the top and Piergeiron, Caladorn, and Sammereza are at the bottom.

As for lord appearances (leaving aside Larissa), the range is from 132 (Piergeiron and Sammereza) to 158 (Brianne) with an average of 144.7 for the 9 years of the tournament. Larissa has 42 appearances in 9 years, but 30 of those appearances come from the first 2 years of the tournament when the two house rules weren’t offered.

In the future I have a takeaway as a GM to do better with my verbal heat announcements. In particular, to make special emphasis on the following (even if it is noted on the scoresheet):

• Players needing to verify that the game setup is correct and that there are no missing or extra components. This mainly consists of counting the Quest and Intrigue decks and the buildings
• I heard one game this year was notably short on Quests
• All players should verify the score sheet before it is turned in
• A scoresheet was challenged this year, but after the scoresheet was turned in, the game was cleaned up, and the other players left, making the challenge rather late. I tracked down two of the players to ask about it, but, as one might suspect, people aren’t likely to remember a number with certainty after an hour or two has passed.
• Qualifiers need to show up on time and ready to play in the Semifinal so Alternates can be released in a timely manner

Final

Notes: Elinor is a newcomer to the tournament and pulled a difficult Final table with two-time winner Eugene (2022 & 2023), 2016 winner Ricky, and Peter who came in second in 2015.

Thank you to Eugene for taking notes for the first three rounds and Ricky for taking pictures of the starting quests and Builder’s Hall as I was finishing a Final nearby.

In the initial setup:

• The initial player order was Eugene Yee, Peter Tu, Elinor Glassco, and Ricky Boyes, with the following lords respectively: Kyriani Agrivar (Arcana / Piety), Mirt the Moneylender (Commerce / Piety), Caladorn Cassalanter (Skullduggery / Warfare), and Khelben Arunsun (Arcana / Warfare)
• Cliffwatch Inn started with:
  • Defeat Uprising from Undermountain (Warfare)
  • Bolster Griffon Cavalry (Warfare plot quest. +1 warrior when take an action that gets you warrior(s))
  • Heal Fallen Gray Hand Soldiers (Piety)
  • Eliminate Vampire Coven (Piety)
• Builder’s Hall started with:
  • House of the Moon
  • Tower of the Order
  • The Tower of Luck

The opening flop of quests was interesting:

• Eugene started with the Defend the Tower of Luck (a cube of your choice now and at the start of each round. A Piety plot quest and in Lord for him) and the Commerce quest Send Aid to the Harpers, which is a nice quest even if you don’t get Lord points for it
• Peter lucked out with two plot quests in Lord and both happened to be the +2 points for quests of the given type: Protect the House of Wonder (Piety) and Establish New Merchant Guild (Commerce)
• Elinor started with two Warfare quests (in Lord for her): Confront the Xanathar (a 20 pointer) and Train Bladesingers
• Ricky ended up with the best and worst quests in the game and both happen to be plot quests: Recover the Magister’s Orb (use a spot another player’s agent occupies one per turn. Arcana and in Lord for him.) and Place a Sleeper Agent in Skullport (+2 for each Intrigue card played. Skullduggery. Simply it costs too much for the benefit in 4-player games.)

(As an aside: I get asked on occasion why I don’t offer the house rule option to remove plot quests from the setup quest deal. I then ask, if the plot quests are restricted then why not restrict the 25 and 20 point quests from the initial deal as well, since those are arguably better than or of equal power to many of the plot quests? Ultimately, I don’t want to tinker too much with the rules of the game, and so I’m not inclined to offer more house rules.)

Round 1 started with Eugene picking up Heal Fallen Gray Hand Soldiers (Piety) and an Intrigue card from Cliffwatch Inn, followed by Peter picking up 2 gold and Perform the Penance of Duty (Piety) from Cliffwatch Inn, Elinor picking up 4 gold, and Ricky taking 2 rogues. For the second agent, Eugene played the Tax Collection Intrigue card (and as is typically the case no one gave him gold to get points), Peter played a Bidding War (quest draft) Intrigue card, while Elinor built The Tower of Luck, which Ricky then used. Round 1 ended with Elinor leading with 1 point and everyone else at 0.

Round 2 saw Eugene building Smuggler’s Dock, Ricky completing the Recover the Magister’s Orb (Arcana) plot quest, Peter completing the Protect the House of Wonder (Piety) plot quest, and Elinor completing the Train Bladesingers (Warfare) quest. Round 2 ended with Peter leading with 8 points, followed by Ricky with 6, Elinor with 5, and Eugene with 1.

Round 3 saw Eugene complete the Defend the Tower of Luck (Piety plot quest) and Elinor completing both the Confront the Xanathar (Warfare) quest and Prison Break (Skullduggery) quest, which allowed her to play the Placate Angry Merchants mandatory quest on Ricky. Ricky returned this insult with kindness by giving Elinor a priest off of an intrigue card as both Eugene and Peter clearly had Piety Lords at this point. Round 3 ended with Elinor jumping into the lead at 34 points, followed by Peter at 8, Ricky at 6, and Eugene at 1.

Round 4 Bizarrely no one has taken first player yet, so Eugene is still first player. Eugene and Elinor both complete quests. Peter builds House of the Moon, and later a quest which allowed him to pick up the Impersonate Adarbrent Noble (Commerce 18 pointer) quest from Cliffwatch Inn. Ricky completes the mandatory quest he got last turn and later takes first player and completes the Bolster Griffon Cavalry (Warfare) plot quest. Round 4 ends with Elinor leading with 45 points, followed by Peter with 22, Ricky at 16, and Eugene at 7.

Round 5 starts with Ricky playing the Accelerate Plans Intrigue card to hit both the Smuggler’s Dock and The Tower of Luck buildings. Eugene hits Ricky with the Foil the Zhentarim mandatory quest. Peter takes first player, followed by Ricky playing the Lack of Faith Intrigue card. Eugene completes the Fence Goods for Duke of Darkness (Skullduggery, actions that produce rogues also produce 2 gold) plot quest. Next Peter completes the Establish New Merchant Guild (Commerce) plot quest. Followed by Elinor and Eugene completing quests, and finally Peter building Tower of the Order, which came with 5 points. Round 5 ends with Elinor maintaining her lead at 55 points, followed by Peter at 35, Ricky at 18, and Eugene at 17.

Round 6 sees Ricky completing the mandatory quest from last turn and later completing a quest. Eugene completes three quests including Placate the Walking Statue (Commerce), which brings into play the building Fetlock Court. Peter plays another Bidding War Intrigue card and gets a quest that he immediately completes. Elinor takes first player. Round 6 ends with Elinor still leading at 55, but the game has tightened considerably with Peter just behind at 53 points, Eugene at 46, and Ricky at 28.

Round 7 starts with Elinor completing the Raid on Undermountain (Skullduggery 20 pointer, +2 points from the Install a Spy in Castle Waterdeep, which I failed to note by name earlier). Ricky completes a quest. Next, Peter plays the Real Estate Deal Intrigue card to replace the Tower of the Order with The Three Pearls (netting the 5 points on it) and then completes a quest. Elinor tries to slow Peter down by playing the Fend Off Bandits mandatory quest on him and completes a quest. Ricky plays the Sample Wares Intrigue card to make use of The Skulkway, which allows him to complete the Ally with House Thann (Commerce 25 pointer) quest. Eugene clears the quests at Cliffwatch Inn before picking up and completing the Expose Red Wizards’ Spies (Arcana 20 pointer) quest. Peter meanwhile completes the mandatory quest along with two regular quests, including Impersonate Adarbrent Noble (Commerce 18 pointer). Round 7 ends with Peter taking the lead with 102 points, followed by Elinor at 85, Eugene at 66, and Ricky at 64.

Round 8 saw the typical quest completing frenzy. Elinor completes a quest, followed by Ricky completing Establish Shadow Thieves’ Guild (Skullduggery 25 pointer, +2 points from a plot quest), Peter completing Seal Gate to Cyric’s Realm (Piety 20 pointer, +2 points from a plot quest), and Ricky completing Bolster City Guard (Warfare 25 pointer). Next, Eugene uses the Free Drinks! Intrigue card to steal a rogue from Elinor and completes a quest. Then, Elinor completes the Lure Artisans of Mirabar (Commerce) quest, which brings The Skulkway into play and gives Elinor the 4 points that were on it. Followed by Eugene playing the Call for Adventurers Intrigue card and completes Send Aid to the Harpers (Commerce) quest (sorry I forgot to note who he gave the money to). Peter plays the Call in a Favor Intrigue card for two warriors and completes a quest. Finally, Eugene completes two quests: Research Chronomancy (Arcana and returns an agent) and Quell Mercenary Uprising (Warfare plot quest, +2 points when complete a Warfare quest). Round 8 ends with Peter maintaining his lead at 138 points, followed by Ricky with 114 points, Elinor at 103 points, and Eugene at 99 points.

Final Scoring saw Eugene, Peter, Elinor, and Ricky gaining 7, 6, 9, and 6 points from material and 32 (8/12 quests), 32 (8/9 quests), 32 (8/9 quests), and 20 (5/7 quests) points from the Lord bonus, which leads to the final score of Peter wining with 176 points, followed by Elinor with 144 points, Ricky with 140 points, and Eugene with 138 points.

Peter’s victory margin of 32 points is by far the largest in the Final of this tournament, with the next closest being the 15 point victory last year. The 6 point range between 2nd and 4th comfortably qualifies for the 2nd closest race for 2nd (2023 had a 1 point range).

The dynamics of the Final were interesting to watch:

• Elinor exploded out of the gate but was unable to maintain her momentum down the stretch
• Ricky had a solid start with getting Recover the Magister’s Orb turn 2, but this along with multiple 25 point quests attracted a couple of mandatory quests costing time and material
• Eugene may have Defended the Tower of Luck, but luck was not on his side when it came to getting quests: Last on both Bidding Wars and only one in Lord quest that exceeded 10 points, which he had to fish for
• Peter’s steady climb before hitting exponential growth in points in the last few rounds

Closing Thoughts

Congratulations to Peter for winning and to all the finalists for a hard fought Final. Thank you to everyone who participated in the event. I hope to see you all next year and please continue to bring your games!

FYI, a sleeved intrigue card was turned in after Heat 2. If you are missing one, and can tell me what it is, I’ll mail it to you.