The eighth BPA Bitterwoods PBeM Tournament ended recently after 34 games with Bruno Sinigaglio's Americans defeating Bill Morse in the six-turn scenario as the last two survivors of the 24-player field vied for the title.
This was the fourth consecutive BPA PBeM Championship for Bruno. In three of those, including the latest, Bruno survived to win against Morse on the last die roll of the game. Statistically, Bill should have won both the earlier contests, as Bruno only had a 16% probability of victory in each of the final battles.
In thus latest championship, on 18PM, Bruno needed to eliminate one more German mech or take back a victory hex. He chose to go after a mech kill. In the attached graphicd, the red dot units attacked the 2/2 mech at 7-1(+2) hoping for a retreat of two that would surround 2/304 mech and prevent Von Manteuffel issuing a Standfast order to either unit; then Bruno could attack the surrounded 2/304 at 2-1(+0) with the blue dot units. A result of 1D1 or D1 on the 7-1(+2) would only allow a 2-1(+1) by the blue dot units guaranteeing Bill the win. The overall chance of success for Bruno was 10 of 36. Fate favored the grognard again, yielding a D4 vs 2/2 and a D1 kill of 2/304. As a result, Bill lost by a hair, again, demonstrating further that he is "snakebitten" in close games vs Bruno.