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The Highland Handicap Last updated 7/13/2017.

By Stuart “The Happy Handicapper” Tucker

 

Part 4 - July 13, 2017

Germantown, MD—In nine days the competitions begin. The Team Tournament field is final. It is time to start deciding on your Pick Ten entry. As I have always advocated, this is not simply a matter of going with the odds and taking the ten teams with the best odds. On some level we all know that you need an edge over other bettors. You need to decide where a team will fail and who will benefit from that. When you predict the unlikely success, that is when you win big. Some might say then that the odds maker fouled up. But we all know that favorites fall short all the time. It could be the pressure, it could be the attention, it might be our inherent impulse to go out and deny the favorites their march of inevitability. We all prefer the underdog. We love a good story. And at the World Boardgame Championships we can participate in that story. We can become part of an underdog’s success and the favorite’s roadblock. I’m not talking about rigged gaming. I’m talking about band-wagons. There is something satisfying in going out and defeating Goliath. I don’t need a promise of 100s of virgins to know that when the little guy stands up to the big guy and succeeds, God smiles. So if I find myself with an opportunity to apply my skills to be that bump in the road that derails the favorite, then I will relish the chance.

I don’t give The Harry B’s odds of 18-1 to win out of friendship. The numbers dictate. Every year I root for others to pile up laurels fast to alter the odds, but every year I still see Bruce Reiff at the head of a top-ranked team. And every year I hope that I’m good enough to face him in his tournament event. Even champions have weakspots, and perhaps I’ve been one for him. Alas, not this year. Personal matters and GM responsibilities (of my own making) require my absence during the two heats of Football Strategy. So somebody else must rise to the occasion. Isn’t that what WBC is all about? Most of us are David taking on Goliath trying to win against the odds. And victory then is oh so sweet.

Before I get to my Pick Ten choices, let me shout out to the many teams that I almost put on that list. Competition here is tough and many mid-ranked favorites have what it takes to win it all, and certainly to make the Top Ten. One of these is Me & Three Stiffs [38-1]. Yet, they play in very tough tournaments, making Team success really tough. I also have to hand it to those Canucks. They’ve stacked some of their best talent into Dice Loving Canucks: Comfy [54-1]. The ever dangerous former-Space Rabbits, Jeff Weffy’s Angels [57-1] deserve a spot as well, but this year they don’t make my list (I can’t pick them every year, that’d look like bias). Think 1st [68-1] not only made the top ten last year, but they improved their power rating considerably, as did Ghost Division [97-1]. The Greenville Mafia always jumbles up their lineups, making Victory [71-1] a strong team this year, but I’m going with a different Greenville team. Of course, Train Conductors [54-1] are dangerous as well, but with the convention director dealing with so many distractions, I have to pass (Gee, when did causing a convention disruption become a Team Tournament tactic? Just now? Oops!).

So, in the end I do have a tough time going against the favorites. Seven of my Picks are among the top ten by power rating. In addition to those already mentioned in my previous column, I’m going with The Harry B’s [18-1], The Siegelmen [31-1], Department of Agriculture (last year’s Sweet Banana Revenge) [32-1], and Greenville’s Old Ironsides [36-1]. To round out my picks, I want to find an edge over my competition by finding a few diamonds in the rough. I think Four Random Dudes [57-1] and School of Sharks [91-1] fit the bill, both having considerable talent and events they can take. So, there you have it, my Pick Ten entry is complete. NOW, GO OUT AND TRY TO STOP ME!!!!

Tucker’s Pick Ten:

  1. The Harry B’s
  2. Nest of Spies
  3. The Siegelmen
  4. Department of Agriculture
  5. Roll One Die
  6. GM:  Old Ironsides
  7. Wabbit’s Wevenge
  8. Four Random Dudes
  9. School of Sharks
  10. The Carlisle Conspiracy

Take a look at all 82 teams.

Part 3 - July 6, 2017

Germantown, MD—With less than a week to go before the field closes, the number of entries this year is a bit thin at 35 teams thus far. The final odds may end up being shorter than the preliminary odds announced. But now that my sleeper pick has entered the contest, it is time to start taking a stand. That’s right, you are going to hear it here first. Tucker’s Lock to win the Top Ten will be announced soon, and you’ll get a glimpse of that slate in just a few short sentences.

But first, let’s call out a shout to all those teams that haven’t yet entered. Heck, six of my projected Pick Ten choices haven’t yet entered. Fortunately, I think these teams are not only sure bets in the gaming arena, but also not likely to miss out on another hotly-contested team tournament. Surely Sweet Banana Stranger by any other name will find a path into the contest, no? And where would we be without all those teams from Eastern PA or Greenville, SC? And all those teams with “Dice” in their names? We are still missing a few!

Drum roll, please. Now entered and guaranteed by yours truly to make the top ten, fresh owners of two 2016 Woods, with odds that are cut by more than half from last year, weighing in at 120-1, but too dangerous to call a long-shot much longer … we have The Carlisle Conspiracy. Maybe there’s something valid to this idea of a home-field advantage for this Quaker State team.

I’ll go ahead and announce three other teams from those already entered that will be on my Pick Ten entry:  Nest of Spies [21-1], Roll One Die [33-1], and Wabbit’s Wevenge [36-1]. For the rest of my Pick Ten choices, tune in to the next Happy Handicapper column.

Team Rankings as of 7/6/2017

Rank

Entry No.

Team

Power Rating*

Odds

1

20

Nest of Spies

476

21

-1

2

5

Band of Fools

339

30

-1

3

18

The Siegelmen

338

30

-1

4

11

Roll One Die

310

33

-1

5

17

Uncivil Servants

296

35

-1

6

14

Wabbit's Wevenge

288

36

-1

7

28

Me & Three Stiffs

280

37

-1

8

26

MIT SGS

257

40

-1

9

29

Young Guns

234

44

-1

10

24

St. Paul's Rejects

201

51

-1

11

2

Dice Loving Canucks: Comfy

199

52

-1

12

13

Gaming Speed Bumps

180

57

-1

13

31

AREA

180

57

-1

14

25

Team Delaware

176

59

-1

15

23

Barry's Minions

150

69

-1

16

16

Ghost Division

111

94

-1

17

6

The Other Shea Family

93

110

-1

18

35

The Carlisle Conspiracy

89

120

-1

19

12

Mighty Dice

86

120

-1

20

34

Non-Sentient Beings

82

130

-1

21

32

Atlas Bears

77

140

-1

22

33

Lion in Winter

76

140

-1

23

10

Kromp-on-Krewe

72

150

-1

24

4

Dice Loving Canucks:  Boys

69

150

-1

25

7

Princess & the Frogs

59

180

-1

26

30

Rural Juror

59

180

-1

27

15

SuperNOVA's

51

210

-1

28

3

Dice Loving Canucks: D.O.G.S

44

240

-1

29

1

Dice Loving Canucks: Sara

43

240

-1

30

19

Los Lobos Locos

40

260

-1

31

21

Two Off the Top

36

290

-1

32

27

ADMW

32

330

-1

33

8

Pixel Juice

22

500

-1

34

22

Robo Dobby

17

600

-1

35

9

Wrecking Crew

11

1000

-1

*A team's Power Rating is the sum of its players' Baton Ratings.

 

 

Part 2 - July 1, 2017

Germantown, MD—All hail the return of the Doctor. No, not Dr. Who, but instead David Dockter’s return to the Nest of Spies [21-1], leading them to the top of the Odds board (at least until the Harry B’s [17-1] show up). This could be the year they resume their dominance. Look out, though, for Me & Three Stiffs [36-1] who return this year a stiff stronger than last. The Siegelman [30-1], Roll One Die [33-1], and the 2016 silver-medalists, Uncivil Servants [34-1] check in with very dangerous teams all quite capable of seizing the throne. Never count out team titan, er, MIT SGS [39-1]—you have to like scientists who love fantasy. Don’t be deceived by the name Young Guns [43-1], as this veteran crew is the Old Squirrels with Nuts from last year.

Meanwhile, St. Paul’s Rejects [51-1] is bulking up in their attempt to relive past glories. Anchorman Frisby rejoins Gaming Speed Bumps [57-1]. The always-better-than-average Team Delaware [58-1] checks in for their 24th year. I am curious to see where Barry lands, having been swapped out from his Barry’s Minions [68-1]. Ghost Division [93-1] rides an excellent year, moving up in the rankings into the middle of the field.

A new long-shot, ADMW [320-1] enters the contest anchored by former St. Paul’s Reject, and ranked a bit ahead of Robo Dobby [600-1].

Personally, I’m not forming my Top Ten entry before the appearance of the high harry banana space conductors of the apocalypse. Well, who knows what their team names will be this year, but highly ranked favorites are winners by any name. So, if your name is Wrecking Crew [900-1] and you see that you are currently ranked 29th, relish the moment. It won’t last long.

Team Rankings as of 7/1/2017

Rank

Entry No.

Team

Power Rating

Odds

1

20

Nest of Spies

476

21

-1

2

5

Band of Fools

339

30

-1

3

18

The Siegelmen

338

30

-1

4

11

Roll One Die

310

33

-1

5

17

Uncivil Servants

296

34

-1

6

14

Wabbit's Wevenge

288

35

-1

7

28

Me & Three Stiffs

280

36

-1

8

26

MIT SGS

257

39

-1

9

29

Young Guns

234

43

-1

10

24

St. Paul's Rejects

201

51

-1

11

2

Dice Loving Canucks: Comfy

199

51

-1

12

13

Gaming Speed Bumps

180

57

-1

13

25

Team Delaware

176

58

-1

14

23

Barry's Minions

150

68

-1

15

16

Ghost Division

111

93

-1

16

6

The Other Shea Family

93

110

-1

17

12

Mighty Dice

86

120

-1

18

10

Kromp-on-Krewe

72

140

-1

19

4

Dice Loving Canucks:  Boys

69

150

-1

20

7

Princess & the Frogs

59

180

-1

21

15

SuperNOVA's

51

200

-1

22

3

Dice Loving Canucks: D.O.G.S

44

240

-1

23

1

Dice Loving Canucks: Sara

43

240

-1

24

19

Los Lobos Locos

40

260

-1

25

21

Two Off the Top

36

290

-1

26

27

ADMW

32

320

-1

27

8

Pixel Juice

22

500

-1

28

22

Robo Dobby

17

600

-1

29

9

Wrecking Crew

11

900

-1

Part 1 - June 25, 2017

Germantown, MD—We open this season both proud and humbled. Long-time favorite The Harry B’s are our defending champion, with a morning line of 17-1, should they stick together. Yet, one of their chief rivals, Nest of Spies only managed 16th in 2016. They are not the only team protesting that they ain’t dead yet. While Uncivil Servants and Greenville’s I Am Standing Up won the silver and bronze, the Top Ten was filled out by teams below average. Chaulk 2016 up to team recruiters with a nose for Euros.

Most surprising for the Handicapper were Sara’s Dice Loving Canucks, but alas this year their entry loses its anchorman, leaving them at 240-1. Perhaps the Comfy Dice Loving Canucks (50-1) are the Canadian All Stars this year. Another unpredicted success came from the Saccenti family’s Princess & the Frogs, but this year they are still missing a Prince, having initial odds of 170-1. Some middling teams meeting with success last year include Space Rabbits, High Boat, and Think 1st.

Of note is The Carlisle Conspiracy which enter the morning odds at half what they were last year. While A Snowball’s Chance remains the ultimate long-shot (1000-1), they at least show a glimmer of hope, having dropped a digit.

Does this all make the Handicapper repentant? Not a chance. Swimming to the top of those swamped Euros remains unpredictable. Give me a team with a consistent Railgamer instead! Never give up on those aging wargame aficionados!

Team Power Ratings as of June 25, 2017

Rank

Entry No.

Team

Power Rating

Odds

3

5

Band of Fools

339

29

-1

17

2

Dice Loving Canucks: Comfy

199

50

-1

42

6

The Other Shea Family

93

110

-1

52

4

Dice Loving Canucks:  Boys

69

150

-1

55

7

Princess & the Frogs

59

170

-1

60

3

Dice Loving Canucks: D.O.G.S

44

230

-1

61

1

Dice Loving Canucks: Sara

43

240

-1